The Threat in Iraq

Juan Cole and Patrick Cockburn have must-reads on Iraq.

The current 'dip' in the violence (fuck, if the Fascists can use euphemisms like 'surge' and 'pause', I can use a crappy phrase like 'dip'; I thought about 'lull', but that would indicate the level was low, not just slightly lower...'high' would be more accurate) is fooling McCain, who damn well ought to know better, into missing the threat to our troops in Iraq. Number 1, they are undertrained, overworked, and have poor leadership. Number 2, the closest thing they have to allies, the Kurds, are busy fighting the Turkish invasion. Number 3, a Sadrist-Sunni alliance focused on fighting the occupation would be a big problem for the U.S. There has been speculation about such an alliance for years, but it hasn't appeared, so this may not be much of a risk.

In any case, given the opposition to the occupation among Iraqis, it is easy to believe that the 'success' of the surge is just the Iraqis 'pausing' while they prepare a new phase of armed opposition.