Ready on Day -20?

See the story Maliki raises possibility that Iraq might ask U.S. to leave by Leila Fadel and Mike Tharp.

Maliki has to walk a tightrope between pleasing Washington and maintaining credibility with Iraqis. Given the track record of complete incompetence of the Bush-Rice State Department, I predict that the U.S. will force an unacceptable SOFA on Maliki.

Outcome 1: He signs it, setting off a wave of domestic opposition in Iraq that either forces him from office or paralyzes the government.

Outcome 2: He refuses to sign it, resulting in the loss of international authorization for U.S. troops in Iraq.

In the case of outcome 2, he could ask the U.S. to leave. The UN authorization expires at the end of the year. The new president may have to be ready sooner than Day One, in fact, on Day -20.