Thursday, March 08, 2007

Petraeus says no military solution in Iraq.

Quote from General Petraeus: ""There is no military solution to a problem like that in Iraq. ... There needs to be a political aspect."

Bush is having none of that. “The goal of the enemies in Iraq is power, and they're willing to kill themselves and innocent men, women and children to achieve that goal,” he said. “People like these can't be satisfied by negotiations or diplomatic concessions.”

The U.S. did have some negotiations with the resistance in early 2006, according to the article http://www.antiwar.com/porter/?articleid=9336 by Gareth Porter. Its unclear whether Khalizad was freelancing, or whether the U.S. was just not serious.

More extensive quoting of Petraeus and Bush might give the impression that they are on the same page and agree on a particular mix of military and diplomatic approaches. I disagree with that. I think there is a serious disagreement between Petraeus and Bush, and they are trying to be a little bit nuanced and respectful of the other side in their public statements. (Bush "nuanced"? I swear, I don't do drugs.)

My prediction: at some point in early to mid 2008, the armed forces will tell Bush that they do not have the resources to maintain their efforts. Bush will start negotiation with the insurgents, but not negotiate seriously. The war will grind on. The next president will reach an agreement with the insurgency, but not a very good one. Petraeus will retire at the beginning of 2008, if he doesn't get fired sooner.

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