Rural America is Pissed
For the thanksgiving holiday we went visiting relatives, and drove along a two lane highway in a rural area. Along a twenty mile section of highway, we saw about 8 "Support the troops, end the war" signs, a hand painted "Impeach Bush" sign, and a large handmade "Ron Paul for President" banner.
Needless to say, this is the kind of area where the democratic voters are likely to be Reagan democrats, and also an area where a disproportionately high fraction of people serve or have served in the military.
On the surface, it appears that this group has turned on the pro-war wing of the Republican party. (Is there any other wing, Mr. Paul notwithstanding?) There is probably a remnant of support for Bush in this group, probably mostly among family of people currently in Iraq, hoping that things hold together long enough for their relative to come home.
Mostly, however, this is a group that once you lose, you aren't getting back very easily.
As for what this means for the presidential election, it tells me that Ron Paul is going to do a lot better than even the current optimistic prospects. This is his base, not libertarian geeks. The Republican primaries are going to look a lot like the democrats in 1988, when Jesse Jackson threatened to run away with the nomination while the mainstream candidates splintered the rest of the vote. Remember then, the Democratic insiders got together and relectantly settled on Dukakis (instead of Gore) as the great white hope to 'save' the party from Jackson.
I can see the same thing happening, with the Republican establishment splintered among Rudy, Romney, Red Truck, and the Huckster. (McCain's base will all be voting for Paul this year. He is toast.) Despite Pat Robertson, the anti abortion obsessors will never accept Rudy, the bluebloods will not go for Huckabee, they are both leary of Romney, and Fred, who was supposed to waltz away with the savior's role, seems not to play in Peoria. It will be very interesting, but I think the Republican establishment will settle on Romney as the anti-Paul.
As for the Democrats, they should not be heartened that a key component of the Republican base has turned against the war. They were a part of the 2006 vote that gave Democrats control of congress, and if they feel like they got screwed in that election, they will sit home rather than vote for losers of either party. If the Democrats want the votes of the large swath of rural america that has turned against the war, they had better get off their butts and do something serious about ending the war before November 2008.
Needless to say, this is the kind of area where the democratic voters are likely to be Reagan democrats, and also an area where a disproportionately high fraction of people serve or have served in the military.
On the surface, it appears that this group has turned on the pro-war wing of the Republican party. (Is there any other wing, Mr. Paul notwithstanding?) There is probably a remnant of support for Bush in this group, probably mostly among family of people currently in Iraq, hoping that things hold together long enough for their relative to come home.
Mostly, however, this is a group that once you lose, you aren't getting back very easily.
As for what this means for the presidential election, it tells me that Ron Paul is going to do a lot better than even the current optimistic prospects. This is his base, not libertarian geeks. The Republican primaries are going to look a lot like the democrats in 1988, when Jesse Jackson threatened to run away with the nomination while the mainstream candidates splintered the rest of the vote. Remember then, the Democratic insiders got together and relectantly settled on Dukakis (instead of Gore) as the great white hope to 'save' the party from Jackson.
I can see the same thing happening, with the Republican establishment splintered among Rudy, Romney, Red Truck, and the Huckster. (McCain's base will all be voting for Paul this year. He is toast.) Despite Pat Robertson, the anti abortion obsessors will never accept Rudy, the bluebloods will not go for Huckabee, they are both leary of Romney, and Fred, who was supposed to waltz away with the savior's role, seems not to play in Peoria. It will be very interesting, but I think the Republican establishment will settle on Romney as the anti-Paul.
As for the Democrats, they should not be heartened that a key component of the Republican base has turned against the war. They were a part of the 2006 vote that gave Democrats control of congress, and if they feel like they got screwed in that election, they will sit home rather than vote for losers of either party. If the Democrats want the votes of the large swath of rural america that has turned against the war, they had better get off their butts and do something serious about ending the war before November 2008.
posted by Tommy Times at 5:15 PM
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